This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.

Overview:
Market Summary
World Stock Market Performance
World Asset Classes
US Stocks
International Developed Stocks
Emerging Markets Stocks
Select Country Performance
Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Commodities
Fixed Income
Global Fixed Income
Impact of Diversification
Quarterly Topic: The Uncommon Average

Market Summary

Index Returns

Market Summary Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.


Long-Term Market Summary

Index Returns

Long-Term Market Summary Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.


World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q2 2019

MSCI All Country World Index with Selected headlines from Q2 219

Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


World Stock Market Performance

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


World Asset Classes

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns (%)

Equity markets around the globe posted positive returns for the quarter. Looking at broad market indices, US equities outperformed non-US developed and emerging markets during the quarter.
Value stocks outperformed growth stocks in emerging markets but underperformed in developed markets, including the US. Small caps underperformed large caps in all regions.
REIT indices underperformed equity market indices in both the US and non-US developed markets.

World Asset Classes

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).


US Stocks

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

US equities outperformed both non-US developed and emerging markets equities.
Small caps underperformed large caps in the US.
Value underperformed growth in the US across large and small cap stocks.

US Stocks Ranked Returns for Quarter (%)

US Stocks World Market Capitalization-US and Period Returns (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is source and owner of trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.


International Developed Stocks

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, developed markets stocks outside the US outperformed emerging markets equities but underperformed the US equity market during the quarter.
Small caps underperformed large caps in non-US developed markets.
Value underperformed growth across large and small cap stocks.

International Developed Stocks Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)

International Developed Stocks World Market Capitalization and Periods Returns (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.


Emerging Markets Stock

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, emerging markets underperformed developed markets, including the US.
Value stocks generally outperformed growth stocks.
Small caps underperformed large caps.

Emerging Markets Stocks Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)

Emerging Markets Stock World Market Capitalization and Period Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes.


Select Country Performance

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

In US dollar terms, Switzerland and Germany recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Hong Kong and Japan posted the lowest returns for the quarter. There was a wide dispersion in returns across emerging markets. Greece recorded the highest country performance with a gain of 23%, while Pakistan posted the lowest performance, declining 21%.

Select Country Performance

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.


Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar

Second Quarter 2019

In both developed and emerging markets, currencies were mixed against the US dollar.

Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar Ranked Developed and Emerging Market Returns (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.


Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

Non-US real estate investment trusts outperformed US REITs in US dollar terms.

Real Estate Investment Trusts Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)

Real Estate Investment Trusts Total Value of REIT Stocks and Period Returns (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones and S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.


Commodities

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return declined 1.19% in the second quarter of 2019. 
Corn and wheat led performance, returning 14.24% and 13.36%, respectively. 
Natural gas and cotton were the worst performers, declining by 16.67% and 14.72%, respectively.

Commodities Ranked Returns for Individual Commodities (%)

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Commodities returns represent the return of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Individual commodities are sub-index values of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Data provided by Bloomberg.


Fixed Income

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

Interest rates decreased in the US Treasury fixed income market during the second quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note declined by 47 basis points (bps), ending at 1.76%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 41 bps to 2.00%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield decreased by 29 bps to finish at 2.52%.
On the short end of the curve, the 1-month Treasury bill yield decreased to 2.18%, while the 1-year T-bill yield decreased by 48 bps to 1.92%. The 2-year T-note yield finished at 1.75%, decreasing 52 bps.
In terms of total returns, short-term corporate bonds increased by 2.09%. Intermediate-term corporate bonds had a total return of 3.13%. The total return for short-term municipal bonds was 1.12%, while intermediate munis returned 1.98%. Revenue bonds outperformed general obligation bonds.

Fixed Income US Treasury Yield Curve (%)

Fixed Income Period Returns (%)

One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the ICE BofAML US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the ICE BofAML US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2019 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index data © 2019 ICE Data Indices, LLC. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.


Global Fixed Income

Second Quarter 2019 Yield Curves

Interest rates in the global developed markets generally decreased during the quarter.
Longer-term bonds generally outperformed shorter-term bonds in global developed markets.
Short- and intermediate-term nominal interest rates were negative in Germany and Japan.

Global Fixed Income changes in Yield (bps) since 3/31/2019

Global Fixed Income in US, UK, Germany, Japan

One basis point equals 0.01%. Source: ICE BofAML government yield. ICE BofAML index data © 2019 ICE Data Indices, LLC.


Impact of Diversification

Second Quarter 2019 Index Returns

These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time.

Impact of Diversification Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%) and Period Returns (%)

Impact of Diversification Growth of Wealth: The Relationship between Risk and Return

1. STDEV (standard deviation) is a measure of the variation or dispersion of a set of data points. Standard deviations are often used to quantify the historical return volatility of a security or portfolio.
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).


The Uncommon Average

Second Quarter 2019

“I have found that the importance of having an investment philosophy—one that is robust and that you can stick with— cannot be overstated.”
—David Booth


The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926. But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful to see the range of outcomes experienced by investors historically. For example, how often have the stock market’s annual returns actually aligned with its long-term average?

Exhibit 1 shows calendar year returns for the S&P 500 Index since 1926. The shaded band marks the historical average of 10%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. The S&P 500 Index had a return within this range in only six of the past 93 calendar years. In most years, the index’s return was outside of the range—often above or below by a wide margin—with no obvious pattern. For investors, the data highlight the importance of looking beyond average returns and being aware of the range of potential outcomes.

the Uncommon Average Exhibit 1. S&P 500 Index Annual Returns 1926-2018

In US dollars. S&P data © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower.


TUNING IN TO DIFFERENT FREQUENCIES
Despite the year-to-year volatility, investors can potentially increase their chances of having a positive outcome by maintaining a long-term focus. Exhibit 2 documents the historical frequency of positive returns over rolling periods of one, five, and 10 years in the US market. The data show that, while positive performance is never assured, investors’ odds improve over longer time horizons

Conclusion
While some investors might find it easy to stay the course in years with above average returns, periods of disappointing results may test an investor’s faith in equity markets. Being aware of the range of potential outcomes can help investors remain disciplined, which in the long term can increase the odds of a successful investment experience. What can help investors endure the ups and downs? While there is no silver bullet, understanding how markets work and trusting market prices are good starting points. An asset allocation that aligns with personal risk tolerances and investment goals is also valuable. By thoughtfully considering these and other issues, investors may be better prepared to stay focused on their long-term goals during different market environments.

Exhibit 2. Frequency of Positive Returns in the S&P 500 Index Overlapping Periods: 1926-2018

In US dollars. From January 1926–December 2018, there are 997 overlapping 10-year periods, 1,057 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,105 overlapping 1-year periods. The first period starts in January 1926, the second period starts in February 1926, the third in March 1926, and so on. S&P data © S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual returns may be lower.


Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services.